Expecting crazy is greater than expecting average, because the important part of “reversion to the mean” is the reversion, not the mean.

History is greater than forecasts, because most investing history is how people reacted to forecasts and things that weren’t forecasted.

Luck is greater than risk, because they’re the same thing in opposite directions but luck is harder to identify, making it worthy of more reflection.

Endurance is greater than time horizon, because the amount of time left in the game doesn’t matter if you’re forced out of the game.

Optimism is greater than pessimism because more people wake up every morning aiming to make the world more efficient than wishing to screw things up.

Personal finance is greater than investing, at all income levels, because a good saver who doesn’t invest will be fine but a great investor mired in debt and overspending can be wiped out.

Skeptical is greater than wooed, because big data leads to big cherry-picking.

Simple is greater than complex, because good ideas need so much room for error that they shouldn’t need lots of data to be persuasive.

Guidelines are greater than rules, because the world changes faster than textbooks.

Reasonable is greater than rational, because you’re a human, not a machine.

Cash flow is greater than reported earnings, because accountants can be science fiction writers masquerading as statisticians.

Culture is greater than strategy, because the former catches up with the latter.

Accepting risk is greater than outsmarting risk, because risk is a genius and a devil.

Conversating is greater than solitude, because there are more lessons to learn vicariously than there are books and blog posts.

Exploring is greater than siloed, because insight doesn’t care what industry or style you specialize in.

Link to the original article: Short Investing Beliefs by Morgan Housel